Monday, October 09, 2006

Korean Nuclear Test - Dud?

Via Hot Air (many links and updates) - this from Defense Tech :
You're thinking, 3.6, 4.2, in that neighborhood. Seismic scales, like the Richter, are logarithmic, so that neighborhood can be pretty big.

But even at 4.2, the test was probably a dud...

3.58-3.7 gives you a couple hundred tons (not kilotons), which is pretty close in this business unless you're really math positive. The same equation, given the US estimate of 4.2, yields (pun intended) around a kiloton.

A plutonium device should produce a yield in the range of the 20 kilotons, like the one we dropped on Nagasaki. No one has ever dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.

Of course, I want to see what the US IC says. If/when the test vents, we could have some radionuclide data -- maybe in the next 72 hours or so.

But, from the initial data, I'd say someone with no workable nuclear weapons (Kim Jong Il, I am looking at you) should be crapping his pants right now.

First the missile, then the bomb. Got anything else you wanna try out there, chief?
Update. Are they going to have another try? (Via LGF)

Update. From the Adventures of Chester:
Gratuitous Machiavellian thought of the day: if we tell them we don't believe their test was real, and they test again, how many tests before they run out of weapons?
Just watching Channel 4 News - trying its best to blame America. There's a surprise.

Update. From BBC News:
The Americans have circulated a 13-point draft resolution seeking targeted sanctions. They include:
Halting trade in material that could be used to make weapons of mass destruction
Inspections of cargo going in and out of North Korea
The ending of financial transactions used to support nuclear proliferation
Huh? Was this not going on already? WTF?!


Blogger George Street said...

Oh, for God's sake how long must we suffer? Can't we send them a nice cake? Or something?

9:55 am  
Blogger Steven_L said...

I think Bush has either turned soft, or is pandering to the Lockheed-Martin lobby.

Since the USAF dropped their order from 380 odd to 180 odd units they want the ban of foreign sales lifted for their F22 Raptor stealth-fighter.

The Japs, along with the UK, Israel and the Aussie are all wanting to buy it too.

5:41 pm  
Anonymous politiconzoon said...

completely loopy. and let's keep a sense of the ridiculous here: a failed fission test; of (relatively) small proportions; not weaponised; and not indigenous technology - no matter how hard they've been trying over the last years don't try to convince me that this tiny dingbat regime has actually managed to do this all on its lonesome. funny how they just managed to come up with this one shortly after the Iranians claimed (with similarly dubious provability) that they had managed to master a different bit of the cycle. Not that I don't think they would if they could, it's just that i see no concrete evidence to back up the claims, mad (pun intended), bad and dangerous though the test was.

10:49 pm  
Blogger CityUnslicker said...

But if they don't have real weapons that is worse news for out troops. It only encourages GWB and TB as we have seen....

10:58 pm  
Blogger James Barr said...

Yes, absolutely. Which was why the N Koreans then said they might have to follow up with further tests in the face of US Imperialism. Maybe it will go right for them next time.

9:12 pm  

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